By
Dr. Ahmed Adamu
Recently, the emir of Kano, Alhaji Sanusi Lamido Sanusi
proclaimed that if northern Nigeria was to become an independent country, it
would be one of the poorest countries in the world, everything being equal.
This inspired argument on the economic sensitivity of the north in a United
Nigeria, I was interviewed on one of northern Nigeria’s most watched
international Hausa TV channel- Wisal TV- to assess how Northern Nigeria fares
in Nigeria socially and economically, and I wish to share with you some of my
points during the live TV interview as follows:
First, one needs to first look at facts and realities before
building opinion or sentiment. Let us look at the economic perspective of the
argument using the indicator of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the most recent
available disaggregate statistics of 2010 showed that among the top 10 most
contributing states, only two were from the north, which were Kano and Kaduna
placed at 6th and 10th Positions respectively, the
remaining top eight states were all from the south. Looking at the bottom of
the table (the relegation zone), eight out of the ten least contributing states
were from the north. Based on these statistics, the north contributed only 26%
of the total GDP of the country. This means that out of the total GDP of $369
billion in that year, the north contributed only $95 billion.
Therefore, if things are to stay as they are, the north will
compare with countries like Sudan and will be placed at 63rd
position in the world GDP ranking, instead of the current Nigerian position of
26th, the south would then (without the north) be placed at 54th
position.
Looking at poverty indicator, on average, 66% of northerners
are poor taking the average poverty prevalence rate of the 20 northern states
including the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) as reported by the United Nations
using the international poverty threshold. Specifically, the north west is the
poorest region in the country, with an average poverty rate of 81%. The average
poverty rate of the south is just 24%. So, this indicates relative higher
income level and perhaps more expenditure and economic activity in the south
than in the north.
Even though poverty is multidimensional, some poverties
cannot be measured, but the real experience and observations have shown higher
level of mal-nutrition, higher illiteracy, poor health care system and poor
drinking water in many of the rural and some urban populations in the north.
This weakens productivity and efficiency of many of the northerners.
Despite the agricultural potentials of the north, this has
not helped improve the productivity of the region significantly. Firstly, from
a macroeconomic perspective, agriculture contributed 21.26% to the Nigerian GDP
in the last quarter of last year. This share did not only come from the north,
because the south also engages in agricultural activity. So how much the north
really contributes to the agricultural productivity of the country? It is
obvious, it contributes higher than the south, but the sensitivity of the
northern agricultural production to the GDP will not be more than 15%. This is
what the Nigerian GDP will lose if the north stops agricultural production in
my own estimate.
Some argue that significant portion of agricultural outputs
from the north profit the southerners more than the northerners, because the
southerners invest and add value in most of agricultural produce in the north.
For example, in meat production, a northerner may suffer to rear a cow and sell
it at N60k (hypothetically) to a southerner, who will then slaughter the cow,
process the meat and package it and sell it either within the country or
abroad, and will eventually sell that cow at anything above N100k, making more
profit than the northerner that reared the animal. This also applies to
vegetables and other crops productions.
There is nowhere in the north where crude oil is being
produced, which means 100% of the Nigerian crude oil production comes from the
south. Even though oil contributes only 7.15% to the Nigerian GDP in the last
quarter of last year, it is still the significant source of foreign earnings
for the country. So, without the north, Nigeria can generate significant
foreign income from production of crude oil. However, the north may soon find
and produce oil, then the equation may change, we will wait and see.
Following all this, one will start to build opinion that
north is not a significant contributor to the economy of the country. This may
not be mistaken despite the huge population of the region. This is because, the
northern population lack the required competitiveness and efficiency to
translate into more productivity. With almost half of the region’s population
being women, who are largely socially restrained from becoming economically
active, as a result they become absolutely dependent on the remaining half of
the population, that is men. Though men are the providers, but that does not
give excuse for women to live below their potential and rely heavily on the
men. Doing this causes high level of divorce and disrespect on women for their
dependency. It also makes the economy of the northern women vulnerable to the
shock of men’s economy.
Another reason why the northern population seems immaterial
is children street begging, where over 20 million children from the region roam
the streets begging for food without shelter, appropriate discipline and care.
This causes huge waste of human capital, and all the potential productivity of
these segments of the northern population are lost. So, despite the growing
northern population, that has not translated into increasing economic activity.
One major cause of the poverty trap in the north is the
quest for easy and quick money. Relying and preferring government jobs or white
collar jobs has crippled the economy of the region. While in the south, hard
work, perseverance and creativity has been the major drive of growth and
development, especially in the state of Lagos. Some northerners hold the belief
that God is the provider (which is true), but tend not to make efforts and
endure, they would rather spend all what they have for today, leaving tomorrow
uncertain. Of course, God is the provider, but one has to do his/her best, and
leave the rest to God. This behaviour discourages efforts and make them engage
in spending for a moment of enjoyment without reinvestment, thereby making their
future uncertain.
The States’ Reliance on federal government allocation adds
salt to the wound, where any shock in the federal government revenue will
directly affects the purchasing powers of the northerners and shake their
economy. Due to limited number of competitive professionals, viable
opportunities are easily accessed once one is qualified in the north. However,
in the southern part of the country, professionals will have to create and
endure new businesses and opportunities to survive, because there are many
competitive professionals competing for limited opportunities, so the safest
option for southerners is always to create the job, which helps in growing
their economy. So, there is no resistance to new opportunities in the south as
opposed to north where traditional jobs and employment are the preferred option.
When talking about development, we have to look at the
educational level of the regions, and it is obvious that the south is ahead of
the north in terms of educational enrolment, where south has an average
enrolment ratio of 88% and the north has 57%. This alone can justify the feeble
development of the north, as education drives development. Finally, for every
region to develop, it has to have leaders who are visionary, who look at
today’s challenges and build a future free of those challenges. Sheikh Mohammed
bin Rashid Al Maktoum once said “The word impossible is not in the leaders’
dictionaries. No matter how big the challenges, strong faith, determination and
resolve will overcome them.” The north will need to be more receptive and
revisit certain cultural ethics and value that are confused with religion, and
reorient its social settings. The 21st century civilization and
development require a cultural shift from rigid to elastic one, so as to fit
and catch up with the tide of globalisation.
Dr. Ahmed Adamu,
Petroleum Economist and Development Expert,
First-Ever Global President of Commonwealth Youth
Council,
University Lecturer (Economics), Umaru Musa Yar’adua
University, Katsina.
08034458189.
Dr. Has said it all, it's left for anyone to believe or not. The truth remain te truth regardless of who says it.
ReplyDeleteI love this write up because it brings out what our common leaders or rather governors cannot see or envisioned. A true leader is one who can see out of the box and forsee for his people. Going to China and discuss HRH Emir of Kano muhammadu Sanusi II is unfortunate instead of them governors to use the occasion and their visit for the betterment of the northern region reports reaching us that they spent precious time discussing how to remove our emir.
ReplyDeleteI Appreciate your article but still needs to discuss for better. You can call on - +2348152005904
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