Ahmed Adamu, PhD
Nigeria’s major source of export revenue is oil, and now over 50 Nigerian oil cargos were reported to have been stranded in oceans without buyers, the question then is where is the revenue going to come from? On Estimate, Nigeria loses at least N25 billion on a daily basis, if continuous up to a year, it will lose almost N1 trillion in a year, courtesy of the current oil price shocks. I explained the dual causes of the current oil price shock in my previous article. Therefore, the Nigerian government cannot fund its expenditure as planned in its ambitious budget. It means that some contracts will not be awarded, people will lose jobs, income and spending will reduce, and the economy may slide back into a recession.
Due to low economic activities, the government is losing some internally generated revenues and must have started suspending some major capital projects. Some private companies have already started sacking their staff, which increases the rate of unemployment. Though the government said, it will not sack any of its workers, but will not employ anyone, it has placed an embargo on all government recruitments, which means more people will remain unemployed. Now with people being lockdown and schools, businesses, transport services, and factories close down, the GDP will plunge drastically. The aggregate demand and supply will converge at a farther distance away from the potential GDP, which increases the recessionary gap.
All the compositions of GDP are going down, including consumer spending, investment, government expenditure, and net exports. This indicates a looming recession. History has shown that there is a positive relationship between Nigeria’s GDP and Oil Price. I studied this relationship way back from 1974 and I observed that any reduction in oil price is associated with a very low or even negative GDP growth. So, the current situation will not be exceptional.
With limited or restricted importations, some goods and services will be scarce, because the countries that export them have shut down too. This can lead to a price surge or inflation. At a time when the oil price is low, import bills are supposed to be cheaper and lead to low inflation, but in Nigeria is not the case. Despite the cheapness of the goods and services in our import basket, the price of the foreign currency is becoming high, leading to inflation.
For example, the dollar is appreciating due to its limited supply or scarcity, courtesy of the low oil revenue, which is the major source of dollar for Nigeria. We have already started seeing a situation where banks cannot meet foreign currency requests by their own customers. Amidst this, there were some panic demand for the foreign currency for speculative and precautionary purposes, and that has contributed to the increase in the value of the dollar in Nigeria. So, we now have dollar-push inflation in Nigeria. As of February 2020, Nigeria’s inflation stood at 12.20%, the highest in more than a year.
Now, it is obvious that the Nigerian economy is severely hit by the current oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. This is quite avoidable. Corona Virus would have hit the Nigerian economy, but not this much. Saudi Arabia’s decision to go into the price war is what makes the case even worst. Corona Virus would have kept the oil price around $40-$45 per barrel. It would not have been this worst, $26 per barrel. One of my students asked me, can we beg Saudi Arabia to stop this war? we are being hit by their fight. As the saying goes, when two elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers. Nigeria is the grass here.
Russia refused to back off and still willing to fight the war as far low as $11 per barrel, and Saudi Arabia is still not willing to show mercy too. Russia will make sure that America’s high-cost shale petroleum production is no longer profitable at low oil prices, and Saudi Arabia will fight against that so that even if America is to be displaced, it must come with a cost for all. It has already cost Russia over $40 Billion so far. Saudi Arabia is directly hitting Russia, by supplying more oil at a discounted value, and not minding the OPEC+ production quota, and by so doing hitting other people’s economies.
This price war came at a very wrong time, and it has added salt to the injury. However, I am optimistic that the price will bounce back. Soon, one of the parties will give up or agree to come back to a table for new negotiations. Another possibility is that some high-cost oil producers will be squeezed out of the market, Nigeria could be one of them, but imagine what cost will that come with.
The Nigerian Oil Company is also considering flooding the market to raise its revenue, but that will be unwise because it is like shooting yourself on the leg. The second option the Nigerian oil company is considering is to reduce the cost of oil production in Nigeria, but this takes time and it is difficult because NNPC may not be in a position to significantly dictate the cost of production, since up to 90% of the oil produced in the country is produced by international oil companies.
So, this is a tough time, and this is exactly what we have been afraid of. I cannot think of a short-term initiative for now, but of course, everyone knows that we have learned that we must have sufficient refineries and other industrial production capacities to reduce our import dependency, and hence our vulnerability. This can be achieved through strategic product import elimination, where we target the elimination of certain products out of the import basket through the provision of sufficient local production capacities for such products or services.
Our exports earnings must come at least from Agriculture, Service, and Industrial Sectors, at least each contributing 20% to our export earnings. It is surprising how oil is contributing 90% of Nigeria’s export revenue and at the same time contributing only 10% to its GDP, this shows the gap in Nigeria’s refining and industrial capacities.
Dr. Ahmed Adamu
Petroleum Economist, Nile University, Abuja.
ahmadadamu1@gmail.com
