By Dr. Ahmed Adamu
Nigeria is the 12th largest crude oil producer in the world, contributing
about 3% of the global crude oil production, and making it the largest crude
oil producer in Africa. It is also the ninth country in terms of gas reserves
in the world, making it having the largest gas reserves in Africa, contributing
about 8% of the global liquefied natural gas supply. However, it is ranked
185th country in terms of electricity per capita, with one Nigerian having an
average access to electricity of 149kWh (averagely 3 hours of electricity per
day depending on the appliances and manner of usage). Despite its crude oil
reserves profile and its installed refining capacity of 445, 000 barrels per
day, yet 70% of its domestic petroleum products demands are met through
petroleum importation. This cost the country around $62 billion in 2014, the
amount that is sufficient to meet the initial investment requirement to build
four refinery plants, each with operating capacity as the combined capacities
of the existing dilapidating refineries in the country. This amount is also
higher than what the country received (averagely around $56 billion) from crude
oil exports in the same year.
As at 2014, Nigeria imported 886 million barrels of petroleum
products, making it the 13th largest petroleum importer in the world. For each
barrel of petrol imported, Nigeria government paid at least $8 per barrel,
which tallied the total fuel subsidy payment to about $7 billion in 2014. These
elephant figures sound outrageous to so many developing countries that would
wish they had that much, they could have used it much better. The wealth
competition between nations is partly motivated to improve wellbeing and
development of citizens, but in Nigeria, its oil and gas resources has caused
more harms than benefits. As I write this, hundreds are on fuel queues ready to
pay at any price level at least if they can see fuel. Millions lack access to
potable water, and talk less of electricity I have earlier explained. The
corruption and mismanagement of petroleum funds are responsible for these
plights, and it appears obvious that Nigeria cannot afford to continue with the
petroleum subsidy.
It is only when the crude oil price is at any price below $40
that the Nigerian government will not pay for subsidy, and because Nigeria is
exposed to petroleum price volatilities and market uncertainties, petroleum
subsidy can never be sustainable. With the increasing demand for petroleum
products signalling more subsidy payments, such cannot be feasible as the
expectation on the government is at the highest level ever. The pending
austerity measure will have to scrap all subsidy payments. However, with
immediate effect, savings from absolute subsidy removal has to be invested in
reviving and building sufficient refining capacity required to meet the average
33 million barrels petrol demand in the country, so that petrol market price
per litre can still be within the usual affordable price range within the
country without being subsidised. If subsidy is removed without corresponding
sufficient refining capacities, then Nigerians should be ready to pay on
average N200 per litre, and even more depending on the market fluctuations.
With Shale oil and gas discoveries, Nigerian oil and gas may no
longer be as favourable as before, which means decline in revenue resulting
from decline in crude oil price. This will also means that the government will
not have sufficient income to meet up with the skyrocketing subsidy payments.
Thank God, this year there is no provision for fuel subsidy. The only feasible
option is to refine enough of what we require and utilise other petroleum
reserves domestically to meet residential, commercial, industrial and transport
sector demands. Thereby propelling the economy, boost export baskets and
maintain a reasonable level of export earnings.
Though, Nigerian existing oil reserves will finish in 2068 (at
the current level of production and reserves), we have to start thinking about
alternatives and new discoveries. Natural gas reserves are 90 times more than
oil reserves in the country, but the required infrastructure to make the
natural gas useful are not there; hence, it is flared to the air, making the
country second worst country in terms of gas flaring in the world. If more gas
infrastructures are put in place and the gas-power turbines (including the new ones)
are supplied with sufficient gas feeds, then electricity access will increase,
jobs will be created, cost of production will reduce, wellbeing will increase,
and the economy thrives. Energy diversification, operational refineries, and
adequate supply of gas to power turbines will help revive industries and cure
the country from Dutch disease. This will entice investors to come and invest
in the country, as the cost of productions is cheaper and Naira currency is
cheaper (courtesy of recent devaluation of the currency). However, with the
continues flowing of foreign investment in the country, demand for Naira will
increase, and Nigerian foreign reserves will increase, and the value of Naira
will eventually appreciate and normalise.
As we prepare for a new Nigeria in couple of days, we have to be
extra cautious and decisive about important decisions especially those relate
to the petroleum and energy sector. Nigerians must be ready to adapt to some
difficult times for some little time, and wait to benefit from the resulting
effects of these difficult decisions. All refineries must start operating at
least above 70% operating capacities (currently operating at 16%), new ones
must be built, subsidy must be totally removed, industrial sector must be
bailed out, and economy diversified.
Ahmed Adamu
Petroleum Economist
Petroleum Economist
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