Dr. Ahmed Adamu met with the Queen of England on many occassions: Photos

From the pictures above, Dr. Ahmed Adamu met with Her Majesty the Queen of England, first during the Queen's Young Leaders award at the Queen's Palace, and during the Commonwealth Day receptions for the 2014 and 2015.

Nigerian petroleum sector; Way out-

By Dr. Ahmed Adamu

Nigeria is the 12th largest crude oil producer in the world, contributing about 3% of the global crude oil production, and making it the largest crude oil producer in Africa. It is also the ninth country in terms of gas reserves in the world, making it having the largest gas reserves in Africa, contributing about 8% of the global liquefied natural gas supply. However, it is ranked 185th country in terms of electricity per capita, with one Nigerian having an average access to electricity of 149kWh (averagely 3 hours of electricity per day depending on the appliances and manner of usage). Despite its crude oil reserves profile and its installed refining capacity of 445, 000 barrels per day, yet 70% of its domestic petroleum products demands are met through petroleum importation. This cost the country around $62 billion in 2014, the amount that is sufficient to meet the initial investment requirement to build four refinery plants, each with operating capacity as the combined capacities of the existing dilapidating refineries in the country. This amount is also higher than what the country received (averagely around $56 billion) from crude oil exports in the same year.

As at 2014, Nigeria imported 886 million barrels of petroleum products, making it the 13th largest petroleum importer in the world. For each barrel of petrol imported, Nigeria government paid at least $8 per barrel, which tallied the total fuel subsidy payment to about $7 billion in 2014. These elephant figures sound outrageous to so many developing countries that would wish they had that much, they could have used it much better. The wealth competition between nations is partly motivated to improve wellbeing and development of citizens, but in Nigeria, its oil and gas resources has caused more harms than benefits. As I write this, hundreds are on fuel queues ready to pay at any price level at least if they can see fuel. Millions lack access to potable water, and talk less of electricity I have earlier explained. The corruption and mismanagement of petroleum funds are responsible for these plights, and it appears obvious that Nigeria cannot afford to continue with the petroleum subsidy.

It is only when the crude oil price is at any price below $40 that the Nigerian government will not pay for subsidy, and because Nigeria is exposed to petroleum price volatilities and market uncertainties, petroleum subsidy can never be sustainable. With the increasing demand for petroleum products signalling more subsidy payments, such cannot be feasible as the expectation on the government is at the highest level ever. The pending austerity measure will have to scrap all subsidy payments. However, with immediate effect, savings from absolute subsidy removal has to be invested in reviving and building sufficient refining capacity required to meet the average 33 million barrels petrol demand in the country, so that petrol market price per litre can still be within the usual affordable price range within the country without being subsidised. If subsidy is removed without corresponding sufficient refining capacities, then Nigerians should be ready to pay on average N200 per litre, and even more depending on the market fluctuations.

With Shale oil and gas discoveries, Nigerian oil and gas may no longer be as favourable as before, which means decline in revenue resulting from decline in crude oil price. This will also means that the government will not have sufficient income to meet up with the skyrocketing subsidy payments. Thank God, this year there is no provision for fuel subsidy. The only feasible option is to refine enough of what we require and utilise other petroleum reserves domestically to meet residential, commercial, industrial and transport sector demands. Thereby propelling the economy, boost export baskets and maintain a reasonable level of export earnings.

Though, Nigerian existing oil reserves will finish in 2068 (at the current level of production and reserves), we have to start thinking about alternatives and new discoveries. Natural gas reserves are 90 times more than oil reserves in the country, but the required infrastructure to make the natural gas useful are not there; hence, it is flared to the air, making the country second worst country in terms of gas flaring in the world. If more gas infrastructures are put in place and the gas-power turbines (including the new ones) are supplied with sufficient gas feeds, then electricity access will increase, jobs will be created, cost of production will reduce, wellbeing will increase, and the economy thrives. Energy diversification, operational refineries, and adequate supply of gas to power turbines will help revive industries and cure the country from Dutch disease. This will entice investors to come and invest in the country, as the cost of productions is cheaper and Naira currency is cheaper (courtesy of recent devaluation of the currency). However, with the continues flowing of foreign investment in the country, demand for Naira will increase, and Nigerian foreign reserves will increase, and the value of Naira will eventually appreciate and normalise.

As we prepare for a new Nigeria in couple of days, we have to be extra cautious and decisive about important decisions especially those relate to the petroleum and energy sector. Nigerians must be ready to adapt to some difficult times for some little time, and wait to benefit from the resulting effects of these difficult decisions. All refineries must start operating at least above 70% operating capacities (currently operating at 16%), new ones must be built, subsidy must be totally removed, industrial sector must be bailed out, and economy diversified.

Ahmed Adamu
Petroleum Economist

President Buhari should tax the rich more and raise minimum wage

There have been misconception that giving tax incentives to the rich help incentivise job creation, because the capitalists are perceived to be job creators. The truth is, they do not. Ordinary consumer is more of a job creator than a capitalist. Business people taking credit for creating jobs is highly unfair. Business people hire people as their last resort, as they only hire to keep pace with the consumer demand. The Nigerian Personal Income Tax act is unfair for allowing fixed tax rate for resident companies, while varying that of personal income tax rates. The rigidity of the resident company tax rate allows for unnecessary overgrowing of few companies and making many more to close down. Small, medium and big companies pay 30% of their profits as tax irrespective of their return and size.

Consequently, rich are getting richer and more citizens that are of middle class were relegated. Statistics have shown that, we have more unemployment as number of millionaires increases over time. If number of millionaires can create jobs, we will not have the level of unemployment we are having now in the country, which is of a record high (23.9%), this without including the estimated 30% more that are under-employed. The individual consumer needs to be incentivised. If the minimum wage is to keep pace with the inflation rate, the minimum wage would have been anything above N25, 000 by now just within five years since it was reviewed to N18, 000. Jobs are consequence of eco-systemic feedback loop between customers and businesses. If the middle class thrive and do well, both the capitalist and the poor benefit.

Therefore, let the rich be taxed more, so that we can create more middle class people, who consumes more and then create jobs by virtue of their consumptions. Company tax system should be proportionate to the income level. Business with profit less than N80 million should be taxed at 25%, business profits above N80 million but not up to N500 million should be taxed at 30%, and any profit margin above N500 million should be taxed at 35%. This should not include companies operating in the petroleum sector. There should not be credit breaks for big companies, unless for special circumstances. However, tax breaks can be allowed for small and medium companies. Minimum wage should be upgraded to N25,000.

With the pending austerity measures, government expenditure (recurrent) must be reduced by at least 10% every year for four years, the tax rates should be increased and compliance enforced. Compliance will not be a big deal because people now have trust and confidence on the government. However, there should be immediate reflection of benefits derived from tax payments. This should be showcased in areas like improving access to electricity, increasing the minimum wage, improving access to quality and affordable health care and educational system. All leakages of government revenue resulting from corruption should be blocked and channelled that to power sector at least in the short term.

Youth For 30%

By Dr. Ahmed Adamu

If 60% of the Nigerian population can ask for only 30% level of inclusion, then they must be given, because that is too small to ask given their sacrifices toward sustaining the constitutional democracy and economic development. Youth in Nigeria made up of at least 60% of the labour force and constitute majority of the eligible voters, with whose votes, leaders emerge.

Looking back at the role young people played in the country’s leadership since independence, many believe that the current youth generation are short-changed, as the old generation keep recycling themselves in the same leadership positions they occupied when they were young.

Tafawa Balewa became Prime Minister at the age of 48, Aguiyi Ironsi 42, Yakubu Gowon 32, Murtala Muhammad 37, Olusegun Obasanjo 38, , Shehu Musa Yar’adua 32, Shehu Shagari 54, Muhammadu Buhari 41 , IBB 44, Sani Abatch 50 etc. The cabinet minsters in their regimes were largely made up of youth below the age of 35. We had a minister of petroleum at the age of 26. There were young people who were then very active in moving this country who are numerous to mention here.

Looking beyond the shores of the country, we had the following young leaders with their ages when the become leaders:

Jean-Claude Duvalier, President of Haiti, 19 years of age.
Valentine Strasser, President of Sierra Leone, 25 Years of age
Dogsomyn Bodoo, Prime Minister of Mongolia, 26 Years of age
Michel Micombero, President of Burundi, 26 Years of age
Maria Lea Pedini-Angelini, Captain Regent of San Marino, 26 Years of age
Amet Zogu, Prime Minister of Albania, 27 Years of age
Muammar Gaddafi, Guide of the Revolution, 27 Years of age
Gloriana Ranocchini, Captain Regent of San Marino, 27 Years of age
Giovanni Lonfernini, Captain Regent of San Marino, 27 Years of age
Abdessalam Jalloud, Prime Minister of Libya, 27 Years of age
Andrea Zafferani, Captain Regent of San Marino, 27 Years of age
Maktoum bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates, 28 Years of age
Mario Frick, Prime Minister of Liechtenstein, 28 Years of age
Kim Jong-Un, Supreme Leader of North Korea, 28 Years of age
Giuliano Gozi, Captain Regent of San Marino, 28 years of age
Ieremia Tabai, President of Kiribati, 28 Years of age
Samuel Doe, President of Liberia, 28 Years of age
Jamtsangiyn Damdinsüren, Chairman of the Presidium of Mongolia, 2 Years of age
Lhendup Dorji, Prime Minister of Bhutan, 29 Years of age
Muhammad Ali Haitham,Prime Minister of South Yemen, 29 Years of age
Milo Đukanović, Prime Minister of Montenegro, 29 Years of age
Yahya Jammeh, President of the Gambia, 29 Years of age
Souley Abdoulaye, Prime Minister of Niger, 29 Years of age
Roque González Garza, President of Mexico, 29 years of age
Gnassingbé Eyadéma, President of Togo, 29 years of age 
Branko Crvenkovski, Prime Minister of Macedonia, 29 years of age 
Joseph Kabila, President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 29 years of age 
David Dacko, President of the Central African Republic, 30 years of age 
Jean-Baptiste Bagaza, President of Burundi, 30 years of age
Bernard Dowiyogo, President of Nauru, 30 years of age
Ilir Meta, Prime Minister of Albania, 30 years of age 
Sadiq al-Mahdi, Prime Minister of Sudan, 30 years of age 
Marien Ngouabi, President of the Republic of the Congo, 30 years of age 
Pandeli Majko, Prime Minister of Albania, 30 years of age

If these young people can lead their countries, it means young people are still capable and should be given space to contribute in nation building. 
The Nigerian constitution has limited youth participation in governance, where it says a person must be 30 years of age before he/she can become a cabinet minister or member of federal House of Representatives, which means 71% of young people in the country cannot become a cabinet minister even if they are qualified by virtue of experience and qualification. The same constitution says, no young person (as defined in Nigerian youth policy) can become senator or a governor or president. Therefore, the constitution should be reviewed to accommodate more space for young people.

Finally, Nigerian youth should rise and demand for inclusion in governance at all levels, as there is nothing for them without them. They should take charge, not only in voting but in governance. Their voices can only be heard if their representatives sit on the table to decide on issues that affect you. The 30% affirmative action for youth participation is non-negotiable. This movement/campaign should be visible and strengthen at every state. Let us get united and pursue 30% level of participation. This movement is not about one person, or personal interest, it is about protecting and empowering the youth.

Ahmed Adamu

Review Nigeria’s youth policy: Commonwealth youth council tells Buhari

The chairperson of the Commonwealth Youth Council, Ahmed Adamu, has urged Nigeria’s president elect, Muhammadu Buhari to review the country’s youth policy as well as initiate youth development targeted at improving the lives of the Nigerian youth

Adamu who stated this while addressing a group of Nigerian youths upon his arrival at Abuja on Thursday said youth development targets and indicators must be set out by the incoming administration and updated regularly, while stressing the need for proper youth participation in youth affairs.

“The ministry of youth must be placed in a position to mainstream all youth development programmes and projects. Government ministries, departments and agencies working in developing youth agenda must do so in partnership and collaboration with the ministry of youth. There should be a consolidated youth development funds that will help in developing youth capacities and entrepreneurial skills. The Nigerian youth policy must be reviewed and implemented to the later. There should be a youth development centre” he said.

He added that the Nigerian youth must take our rightful positions in governance.

“We call on the Nigerian President-Elect to ensure 30% affirmative action for youth participation in governance at all levels. This is a non-negotiable option. We specifically call for appointment of a young person below the age of 35 as youth minister. This is in line with the definition of youth as enshrined in the Nigerian youth policy.

“The second criteria is that whoever is going to be nominated as youth minister must be a youth leader, who has contact with the youth and is familiar with their challenges. The youth minister’s position must be purely based on qualification and relevant experience, and politics should not influence the choice.

“We are now watching the President-elect, and for every action he makes, we will make sure that the interest of young people are protected and represented” he said.

Adamu however promise to give unyielding support toward the success of Mr. Buhari’s administration.

“We, the youth voted for this new administration and we will make sure it succeeds. Youth issues must be squarely addressed. These range from youth unemployment to low quality education”.

Adamu said he is in Nigeria to felicitate with “my brothers and sisters over the peaceful and credible elections, and to congratulate the president-elect for the victory. The Commonwealth Youth Council (CYC) led the Nigerian youth in a non-violence election campaign, and as a result, the Nigerian youth were determined to shun any sort of violence. Therefore, this is a victory to the youth. The young people endured all the hardships to ensure that their voices were heard in this election. This is a great triumph for the young people”.

He also informed that CYC is undertaking some youth development projects across the 53 Commonwealth nations, and within the remaining period of his tenure, he will bring so many other youth development projects to benefit the young people around the world.