How to urgently fix insecurity in Northern Nigeria

- Ahmed Adamu, PhD

 

Since the recent exacerbation of terrorism in northern Nigeria, there have not been serious legal actions to punish the culprits. There should be an emergency court for trying the criminals and immediately convict them.

 

There should be a special law that dictates the kinds of punishment for every kind of complicity in banditry and kidnapping. The punishment should be severe and in the public view. It will serve as a deterrent to others who might be tempted to be involved in any kind of terrorism.

 

The government cannot fix this level of insecurity in a short while, that is why the citizens have to come in.  For northern Nigeria, there should be an independent body or forum that will unite the expertise and resources of all active and retired professionals and elites from the region. 

 

The forum will be independent of the government and should have a structure down to the local government levels. It will be managed by highly respected and experienced people in the region. The forum might be named “Arewa Development Forum”.

 

The forum will feed the various state governments individually and as a group with ideas and strategies and help harmonize their approaches toward combating the insecurity.

 

The body will establish “The Arewa Development Trust Fund”, where every working and capable northerner will be contributing a willing amount of money monthly. The funds will be used for compulsory education for all and some basic infrastructural development in the northern rural areas.

 

The extent of the abject poverty in the north is unimaginable. There are still villages where they don’t have schools and no access to electricity. These villages have no road and potable water, and their population is growing.

 

The Arewa Funds will be used to build infrastructure in these kinds of villages. It will be used to build schools and sponsor every child’s education, especially in remote areas. It will be used for free education for every northerner. New teachers will be trained and recruited and paid well from the funds.

 

The Funds should be used to address street children begging and hawking. The Forum will conduct a census of the “Almajiri Child” for a database of their locations and their homes of origin, with a plan to send every child back to their parents.

 

The parents should be incentivized for keeping and supporting their children's education. The Funds can also be used to support modern and mechanized farming, including animal rearing and ranches. It can also be used for capital seed for women's entrepreneurship and businesses.

 

All the international donor agencies and NGOs that want to work in Northern Nigeria should work with the Arewa Development Forum. The idea is to harmonize the resources for efficiency, devoid of duplication.

 

The governments of all the northern states should contribute to the funds. International Organizations and Foundations should be solicited to contribute to the Funds. The idea is to generate and spend at least N2 trillion for only education and basic infrastructure in rural areas of the region.

 

If we can have up to ten million northerners who will be contributing at least N20,000 every month, we will raise N2.4 trillion in a year.

 

On top of this, we can receive donations from the state governments, NGOs and international agencies, and foundations. Nigerians in the southern region might wish to contribute as well.

 

The local government branches of the Forum should maintain education and development statistics and a database of the people under their jurisdiction. The information will help for the appropriate allocation of these resources.

 

There should be a new law that will convict any person or their parent for not acquiring a minimum of secondary school education in the North. The Education must be compelled and made free for all.

 

Banditry and all kinds of terrorism are ideologies. Ideologies are groomed by certain circumstances, and they can travel everywhere. The only thing that prevents it is education.

 

Only education and empowerment can fix insecurity. If we don’t come together to kill this ideology, it will kill us. It is now time to stop expecting too much from the government. We have to rise and do it ourselves.

 

It is not surprising that Northern Nigeria is facing this level of insecurity because despite being the region with the highest population growth rate (with an average woman giving birth to six children), more than half of the girl children aged six and above are not having an education.

 

The region also accounts for 9 million of the 14 million out-of-school children in Nigeria, with the northwest alone having five million of them. Northern Nigeria's poverty rate is put at 86%. Any region that has a high level of poverty and lack of education like this has fulfilled the conditions for insecurity.

 

Traditional rulers have to be actively involved in information and intelligence gathering. They are closer to the people; they could provide relevant information and strategies unique to their territories.

 

War should be declared in the affected areas. A large number of Nigerian armies should be deployed and given the order to clear the terrorists and ensure peace in the region.

 

Ultimatum could be given to some of the terrorists who are willing to lay down their arms unconditionally, beyond this chance should be death. There should be immediate rebuilding and infrastructural development of the areas where these bandits come from so that they will have options of a new life in their towns or face death.

 

Finally, the APC administration must fix insecurity before the 2023 elections, because the APC and President Buhari were voted mostly to fix insecurity. The next administration should not inherit another insecurity challenge.

 

The next administration should focus on addressing other issues. We cannot afford to waste a complete eight-year tenure of an ex-Army General without addressing insecurity in Nigeria.

 

I call on all Nigerians to take responsibility and act, we should stop relying absolutely on the government to fix insecurity.

 

If you do have other ideas on how to fix insecurity or you want to respectfully challenge or support my submissions above or my previous article on the subject matter, you can send me an email. 

 

Ahmed Adamu, PhD

ahmadadamu1@gmail.com

 

How to Fix Insecurity

I have listened to two interviews with some terrorists from Northwest Nigeria, and these are my deduction and suggestions for the insecurity in Nigeria. 

The issues:

The terrorists claimed that security forces are only attacking innocent people, not the armed terrorists.

They claimed that the Nigerian security forces have never attacked them and they cannot dare to attack them.

They said, they sometimes sympathize with their captives and their families, but some of the captives do not deserve sympathy.

They claimed that the vigilantes also engage in crimes and excesses.

They said, some of the armed gangs are willing to repent and reconcile, but some are not willing.

If the government will do justice, they are willing to drop their arms, they are conscious that what they are doing is bad.

They said, one of the conditions for peace is to provide education for their people so that they can equally have opportunities.

The majority of their people are not educated, they said. If a Fulani person is educated, even if he does not have cattle, he can survive.

Now, the reason why they have taken arms is that they were sent out of their farmlands by vigilantes and now they can’t rear their cattle, and they don’t have education, in this situation the gun is the only way out.

The terrorists have different groups, and they live inside the forest. They come out to rob shops and steal food and go back to their hideout. Some people supply them with arms.

 

They take drugs and substances before they undertake any operation.

They recruit new gang members daily. They promise them financial incentives.   

The solutions

There are two approaches to the issue: Curbing and Preventing

Curbing: this involves proactiveness and aggression prior to and after any attack. This involves aggressive use of the arm to prevent, repel or revenge any imminent attack. There should be a military aggression and footage tracing of the terrorists, immediately after any attack.

Excessive use of military force should be deployed in the confirmed hideouts of the terrorists. Deployment of technology, surveillance cameras that detect human movements and voices. Tracking of mobile phone communication and use of auto drones and unmanned fire jets on the suspected areas.

Technological Security controls, surveillance, and highway patrons, as well as heavy security escorts, should be deployed on the highways for public use. The President should be visiting the attacked areas to see the level of damages and sympathize with the families and ginger the security personnel to avenge all attacks. There should be some media broadcast on each attack and the subsequent actions of the security personnel.

Preventing: Population management: This includes effective database management of Nigerians and monitoring of all entry and exit to and from Nigeria, Family education, and population to resources matching policy. 

Our capacity to provide educational, medical, housing, nutrition, and security needs of our population should match with the size of the population so that no one will be lacking the basic needs of living.

If these things are not properly implemented, we will keep producing another disgruntled set of people who will continue to use arms to show their frustrations and ignorance.

Ahmed Adamu, PhD

Reducing Unemployment through Migration

Ahmed Adamu, PhD

There are more than 130 million Nigerians who are either unemployable, unemployed, or underemployed. This situation exacerbates extreme poverty and fuels increasing insecurity.

Despite the continued government borrowing and various interventions to address these menaces, the situation is exacerbating.  A different strategy has to be in place to achieve a different result because it is insanity to keep doing the same thing and expect a different result.

One of the out-of-the-box solutions to unemployment is an organized migration program where Nigeria should plan to send up to 20 million Nigerians to work abroad in ten years.

Irregular migration is growing in Africa, with Nigeria recording the highest number of illegal migrants, mostly young people. Economic hardships are pushing more people to leave Nigeria to migrate illegally in search of better lives.

Hypothetically, three-in-ten Nigerians wish to leave Nigeria in anticipation of a better life abroad. A young Nigerian said he better die in the desert trying to migrate than to stay in Nigeria. And most times, these illegal migrates are exposed to severe threats, violations of human rights, and slavery. And yet, they are willing to pay money to be trafficked abroad.

Nigeria is one of the countries with the highest surpluses of the small and semi-skilled labor force, and new job opportunities always seem too small.

For every decent job opportunity created, at least one hundred people will apply for it. There are no corresponding opportunities to meet the growing number of small skilled laborers in Nigeria. This situation creates an enormous redundant labor force. Then what do we do with them?

The Nigerian government should design a migration program to create opportunities for this redundant labor force. It will enable eligible Nigerians to register to join the migration program. The program will create a pool of capable Nigerians who fulfilled some technical and medical requirements for recruitment in some selected foreign countries.

The government will enter into a bilateral agreement with some developed countries that need a labor force. These countries will also establish a pool of employers in their countries who may wish to choose from the Nigerian stream of prospective employees/laborers.

Each country will specify its labor force requirement, including technical and language skills that will enable Nigerian laborers to fit in and start working immediately upon arrival.

Eligible Nigerians will sign up and indicate three top countries of their choice. They will state their competitive skills and spoken languages. There will be one-year preparatory training for all Nigerians who made it to the pool to enhance their employability abroad.

The training will be specific to the intended country of destination. For example, people that want to go to Japan would need the skills that the Japanese employers need.  And they will have to learn the Japanese language.

The Nigerian government will send the CVs of those that successfully learned these skills to the Japanese employers’ pool for selection. It is the prerogative of the employers to choose who they want to pick.

The Nigerian government will negotiate for the wages of the beneficiaries and ensure their proper placement. The government should be responsible for their flight ticket once for the initial trip to the intended destination.

The program is an employer and employee matching pool, where employers search to find their perfect marching employees. There will be some contract agreements to ensure the employers and the employees fulfill their obligations.

With this organized migration policy, young Nigerians will not be risking their lives to irregularly migrate as they stand better chances to go to their destination with dignity.

I initially posted my speech on this policy on my social media, and subsequently, many Nigerians, including professionals, indicated an interest in this program. It means that there are many more Nigerians who may be interested in this program.

Exports of natural resources are not limited to mineral resources but also human resources. Exporting human resources will improve Nigeria’s balance of payment.

In the last quarter of this year, Nigeria’s value of imports stood at N7 trillion, while non-oil exports stood at N1 trillion. Sending Nigerians to work abroad will increase international remittance. It will also increase the receipts in the components of the balance of payment of Nigeria.

This policy will also help fix the exchange rate crisis in Nigeria since international remittance will increase the supply of the dollar and then appreciate the value of Naira, which will reduce inflation and increase job opportunities.

In 2019, Nigerians working abroad sent in about $26 billion to Nigeria. This kind of remittance is the second-largest source of foreign exchange receipts after oil revenues in Nigeria.

Increasing international remittance will reduce poverty. Nigerians working abroad will be sending money to their relatives back at home, which will help alleviate poverty among households. This kind of opportunity will also reduce the pressure on the available job opportunities in the country.

Someone talked about the brain drain that this policy might lead to, but there will not be a realization of the full benefit if you asked all the capable Nigerians to stay in Nigeria to work. Because if they do, they will be frustrated and perform far below their potentials. So, keeping some of them is wasting them for now.

Other countries like the Philippines, Pakistan, Ethiopia, and Bangladesh are also implementing a similar policy. And it is adding a positive impact on their economy.  There should be other complementary unemployment reduction programs in Nigeria, as this policy alone cannot fix unemployment.

Finally, this program will help increase government tax revenue, as the government can charge taxes for each dollar remitted. The government should use these receipts for building infrastructures that will incentivize new job opportunities.

 

Ahmed Adamu, PhD

Nile University, Abuja

ahmadadamu1@gmail.com

18^th November 2021

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CGM

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The Implication of the new Petroleum Industry Act in Nigeria

   

The Right Values

  

Leadership Gap in Africa

  

Petrol Price Hike: The Subsidy Dilemma

 Ahmed Adamu, PhD

It was not a surprise the real price of petrol in Nigeria is now N212 per liter, I have predicted this in the past. In fact, it could still reach N300 per litter depending on the market situation, particularly crude oil price and exchange rate. If there are no sufficient local refining capacities, there are going to be continuous shocks in the petrol prices. 

Nigerians could not cope with the exposure to the volatility of the oil markets, because petrol price is associated with the general price level and there are no cheaper alternative public transportations. Since prices are sticky in the drop, frequent volatilities push and stick prices are higher levels, thereby reducing the purchasing power of people’s income and making more people poorer.

The Nigerian government will not want more increases in petrol prices since we have had series of them from N87 per liter to now supposed N212 per liter in just 6 years. The trap is that the government had already proclaimed removal of the petroleum subsidy, which means undesirably exposing Nigerians to shocks in crude oil and money markets since 100% of the refined petrol is imported solely by the NNPC.  

Though petroleum subsidy removal is generally regarded to be a right policy, the prerequisite conditions have not been fulfilled in the case of Nigeria yet. One of the most essential conditions for removing the subsidy is sufficient local refining capacities so that everything will be processed locally, from extraction to refining, and there will not be involvement of foreign currency in the supply value chain and costs of international transportation will not be involved. 

Already, today’s price hike announcement had already caused long queues in many of the operating filling stations selling at N212 per liter, and other filling stations have closed waiting for the confirmation of the higher price. This untold hardship had already sent a negative ripple effect on the major macroeconomic indicators like Income, Production, Employment, and Price levels. Therefore, the damage has been done. 

Even though the agency responsible for determining the petroleum prices has denied imposing the market reflective price of N212, but the market has already responded, and it is truly the appropriate market price now. But, due to political ramifications, the circular had to be stood down. If that is the case how much will now be spent on the unofficial subsidy?

Even last week, the Senate accused the NNPC of spending hundreds of billions of Naira for the subsidy, the question here is that if the government still pays for the subsidy, then why Nigerians were exposed to the continuous price hike? Was there any significant compensation or development of the sector since the removal of the subsidy? The economies of average Nigerian have worsened off since the subsidy removal. Therefore, the marginal costs of the subsidy removal outweigh its marginal benefits. 

Therefore, the Nigerian government should revert to N145 per liter and reintroduce temporary subsidy until when Dangote’s refinery comes on stream. It is very good news that Dangote agreed to sell his refined petroleum in Naira, thereby uncoupling the continuous dollar inflations from the petroleum supply chain. Even then, the subsidy should be removed in phases. In my previous posts, I recommended various subsidy regimes that could be implemented to phase it out.

Dr. Ahmed Adamu

Petroleum Economist, Nile University, Abuja.

ahmadadamu1@gmail.com

Obstacles and Tips for Entrepreneurs

 Blaming leaders for your poverty and refusing to take your primary responsibility and not willing to start with small ideas are obstacles to successful entrepreneurship. The rewarding skill is not hard work, but innovation. Responsibility is leadership, and it is Entrepreneurship. 

Your University degree is a limiting factor, the greatest limitations to your success are your certificates. Certificates have 3 traps: it makes you feel you arrived, want only white-collar jobs, and limit your scope of work. Delay gratification, suspend present enjoyment for the future.

Obstacles to success, steps, and tips for successful entrepreneurship, life vision, degree trap, and leadership issues were highlighted in my speech during the Katsina Youth Dialogue. Startups and small business owners shared their challenges, and advice was given to them, the complete speech can be watched from this YouTube link: