First-Ever Negative oil price: Why

By Ahmed Adamu, PhD

(20th April 2020, 23:00)

As I write this article, the famous American crude oil called West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is sold at -$13 per barrel, which means, suppliers of oil have to give $13 to whoever is willing to take one of their barrels of oil produced. This means, the oil is free today, and you will get an incentive for taking the oil.  The suppliers are desperate to let go of the oil they produce to avoid storage costs.

The reason behind this unprecedented decline in the price of that oil is just simply a storage crisis. The buyers of WTI oil are required to take physical delivery of their oil at a location called Cushing in Oklahoma, unfortunately, this location has saturated its storage capacity, and buyers don’t want to take delivery of oil without a place to store it before getting a final buyer. And tomorrow, Tuesday is the expiration of the May Futures contracts.

A futures contract is an agreement where buyers and sellers agree to deliver oil at a futuristic price. Buyers and sellers establish a price that oil will trade at not today, but on some coming date at a particular speculated price.  So, the futures market for the oil that’s supposed to be delivered in May is closing tomorrow.  So buyers don’t want to take delivery of May supplies because there is no space to store them. That’s why they are ditching their contracts, and no one is willing to keep their contract, hence the negative price. 

However, this is only affecting American oil, not Nigerian oil, Nigerian oil as we speak now is sold at $22 per barrel, it is even high by 4% today. Other oils like that of global benchmark oil, the Brent, are not facing that pressure too. It is sold at $26 per barrel. 

Most people would have expected an increase in oil price, but the oil price is still not above the Nigerian adjusted benchmark of $30 per barrel. This is because the world is already having a lot of oil supplied, more than it needs and the demand is nowhere to be found due to the coronavirus lockdown. 

Despite the recent OPEC’s commitment to reduce world oil production by 10%, the oil price is dwindling, this is because we already have excess inventory, and we have to allow time for the market to clear before this reduction takes effects. In the normal demand period, this takes one to two months, but in this abnormal period, the market response may take up to four months, things being the same. So, the only immediate hope is for demand to surge when countries agree to open their economies in the presence of the deadly virus.

Dr. Ahmed Adamu

Petroleum Economist, Nile University, Abuja.

ahmadadamu1@gmail.com

How to Open Nigerian Economy in the Presence of Coronavirus

Ahmed Adamu, PhD

We do not have to wait until the end of coronavirus before we open our economy, if there is one thing coronavirus is leading us to is a new way of life, not the end of life. Now, it is time to design a new lifestyle and open the economy despite the presence of the virus, here is why and how.

Closing a weak economy can lead to its ultimate death. The lockdown due to the coronavirus is tantamount to the absolute death of African economies that are largely comprised of small and informal enterprises. The economic repercussion of the lockdowns could be costlier than the virus itself. Locking down the economy will mean loss of income, jobs, and productivity, leading to extreme poverty, unemployment, and inflation. These economic issues can cause anarchy that might cost more lives and resources. The challenge is, how do we save these lives and resources in the presence of the deadly coronavirus.

We have started experiencing increasing desperation, hunger, insecurity, and poverty in just a few weeks of the lockdown, now ask yourself, what will happen if you lock down a hungry and idle person for a longer time? First, as they say, a hungry man is an angry and desperate man, and an Idle mind is a devil workshop. So, when these negativities come together, we should expect the worst. The good news is that the social and economic costs of the lockdowns are avoidable.

If we are to wait until the virus is gone before we open our economy, then we will not even have the economy to open. In fact, even if we have the remains of the economy, we will need to spend so much money to revive it, do we have the money for that? I guess no. The daily losses of these lockdowns, both human and financial are far more than that of the virus. That is why I recommend that these lockdowns should not last a month.

It is okay at the beginning of a pandemic like this one to lock down countries and states to buy time to study, prepare, plan, and adapt to the virus. So, one month should be enough for that. Any lockdown beyond one month will harm the economy beyond our ability to repair. That is why I recommend opening the Nigerian economy as soon as possible based on the following conditions and recommendations.

Similarly, it is not advisable to lock down cities with some weekly opening days, the threat is that even a one-hour window can cause widespread of the virus if the following measures are not taken. If the right measures are taken, then we can open the economy not only on those window days but completely. So, the following codes of living can guarantee the opening of the economy despite the presence of the virus.

1. Testing: we should provide adequate testing booths across the country, just the same way we have election polling units, we should have testing units, and people should be scheduled for testing so that everyone in a ward can rapidly get tested within 30 days. People must observe the required distance and wear face masks while in the queue. Everyone that gets tested, must collect the certificate of clearance, with which they can report back to work or open their businesses. Organizations or companies that are eager to bring back their workers to work can set up their testing booths for their staff. The idea is not to risk allowing carriers of the virus to report back to work and infect others. Housing Estates can also organize their testing booths. Anyone that tested positive should not be allowed to go back to work or business. The clearance certificate must contain an authentication barcode so that law enforcement officers can ascertain the validity of the certificate at any time.

2. Contacts Tracing: As we open the economy, everyone must minimize the number of people they meet every day, whoever you are meeting must be very urgent and important, otherwise, do most of your conversations and transactions online or over the phone. Minimize contacts to the lowest possible level. Everyone must have a book or diary in which they document names of all the people they meet daily, including their contacts, meeting location, date, and time. This will make the contact tracing easier. In case, a person tested positive, it is easier to trace his previous contacts, so that they can also be informed and forced to immediately isolate.

3. Social Distancing: As I mentioned above, after opening the economy, we must minimize contacts, and create the required physical distance when meeting someone, this does not matter if it is our friend or a family member. The social distance must be observed while undergoing normal activities. What about in a taxi or bus? In this scenario, everyone going into public transport must sanitize their hands, minimize talking and contact if possible, wear face masks, and do not touch their faces until they wash their hands. Recreational centers must enforce similar measures and social distancing, and crosscheck clearance certificates as well. Mosques and churches can also be opened, but members must have clearance certificates, observe the distancing, wear masks, wash their hands and bring their prayer mats in the case of the mosque. The prayers can be observed in many batches. Those that may not have space in the first batch can wait for the second batch or pray at home. Weddings can take place using similar measures.

4. Enforcement: There should be a law that will incriminate any negligence or failure to observe the safety measures by business owners, employers, religious leaders, and even individuals. If anyone is found not observing the codes should be taken to court for fines or imprisonment. The new job for Police and Civil Defence will now be to ensure compliance with these measures. Security agents must patrol every location to enforce compliance. There must be checking points everywhere to ascertain everyone’s clearance certificates and observance of the guidelines.

5. Distance Business and Learning: Businesses should be incentivized to take their operations online. The majority of transactions and education must be online unless it is economically and technologically impossible. The government through NITDA and SMEDAN must budget some money to help small and medium enterprises go digital. Restaurants must serve only takeaway or home delivery. There must be additional guidelines for the physical decongestion of businesses and education. Schools that can operate online must continue online, and their examinations should be online too. Teachers must learn to ask analytical or practical questions for fair assessments of true understanding, which is a rewarding skill for this century. Radio stations are good mediums for learning for those that cannot afford the internet. Primary and Nursery schools may be opened but with strict measures and observing all other codes as well.

6. Protections and Cure: there must be sensitizations on the need for everyone to protect themselves and all the protection facilities should be provided for free by the government, this should include hand sanitizers, temperature tester, and face masks. Local manufacturers should be asked to supply these things in order to create jobs for them. Generally, people should avoid contacts, crowd and touching their faces before washing their hands. For the cure, we must not give up, we should not wait for others to give us the cure, we should set up a special task force responsible for exploring all possible cure and procedure for the treatment of the virus. This should include unconventional medicine like traditional and herbal medicine. There should be a national conference where all conventional and unconventional medical practitioners would be welcomed to present their procedures or medicines for the cure of this virus. So, we should do our very best to find the cure ourselves.

7. Organizational Response: Each organization or institution or business must establish their own special unit responsible for responding to the COVID19 and setting their own preventive and protective measures for their staff and customers.

8. Investment: The money that is being shared to keep people at home should then be used to support businesses implement these measures and to revive the dead businesses. This can serve as an opportunity for a big positive shift in our economy.

So, every state should constitute a committee responsible for designing the roadmap for reopening their economies and set up guidelines suitable for their own realities and set a target date for the reopening. The above guidelines provide the starting points and ideas on how to go about it. This is urgent, because, every day we spend under these lockdowns, we incur irreplaceable costs. Let us stop these avoidable costs.

Dr. Ahmed Adamu
Petroleum Economist, Nile University, Abuja.
ahmadadamu1@gmail.com

The Coronavirus Lockdowns: We must think twice

I remember the Labourers, Shoe Shiners, Bus and Taxi Drivers, Okada people, Keke drivers, car-washers, Mechanics, Laundry people, Wheelbarrow Pushers, Printers, Shop owners, Tailors, Airliners and many more micro, small, medium and big enterprises whose businesses and sources of income are shut down because of the Coronavirus lockdown. Some of them can never go back to their businesses, because some of the businesses are dead by now, they must have consumed all their profit and capital. The questions are, how can they survive this lockdown any longer, and in the aftermath of the pandemic, how can they start over?

We have seen an acute rise in desperation, poverty, insecurity, and unrest in just a few weeks of this lockdown.  Hunger can make people do desperate things. Hunger is threatening people's lives more than the coronavirus does. We have reached a stage where people are willing to face the virus just to feed themselves, or engage in stealing or robbery to get food. There is this wise saying that, "whatever removes rat from its hole into a fire is more dangerous than the fire." Hunger is more dangerous than the coronavirus. With the imminent lockdowns in some states, one must be cautioned about the social and economic consequences of that. 

The differences in our economic classes have never been this wide and evident as it is during this lockdown, and the vicious cycle is coming down on the common man. Poverty is affecting the common man, and at the same time, he is the victim of the resultant insecurity, because the bourgeoisies are well protected. There is no way we can afford to lock down our economy much longer, we recently withdrew N5 billion from our sovereign wealth fund and another N3 trillion loan is on the horizon, and nothing has significantly changed so far, this is not viable and promising for our future. We have to think outside the box. 

The question is, can Nigeria fit in and survive a lockdown like this one? The larger portion of our population is made up of people whose income is dependent on daily outing and hustle. If the advanced countries can do it, can we? People that have saved enough money can afford the lockdown comfortably, but what about those that didn't save money?

Help me mention more businesses that are affected by this lockdown, let us recognize their plight and the extent of this crisis. 

I would suggest opening up the economy, but with serious measures of prevention, sanitization, distancing, and testing. 

 Dr. Ahmed Adamu, 

 ahmadadamu1@gmail.com

The Economic Trap of Coronavirus

Ahmed Adamu, PhD

 

It is a difficult call for any government to shut down its economy, but that’s what’s happening today due to the coronavirus. Here is the trap, the public quarantine due to the virus has led to the loss of jobs and incomes, inflation, and recession, yet governments have to finance the quarantine in form of social palliatives, yet again, governments have to fund the containment, stoppage, and cure of the virus, and again governments have to finance the revival of the hibernated economy. All of these in the presence of the worst oil revenue slumps in two decades, and a period when every country is struggling to survive, and external aids are not imminent. 

The longer the pandemic stays, the more expensive the recovery will be.  So, the government would need to spend more now to cut the waiting period, because every minute comes with a steeper recovery cost. This crisis is unique and by far different from the 2008 economic crisis. Now let’s analyze these questions, can the Nigerian government bear these costs and what’s the Nigerian best bet? How to manage the coronavirus economic crisis and how different the current economic crisis is from the 2008 global recession?

More than half of the total jobs in Nigeria is being lost, people lose their jobs without social protection and are being asked to stay at home. Income losses are estimated to amount to at least N3 Trillion in Nigeria alone in just a matter of a few months. Investment is rapidly going down. Factories have shut down, even factories that insist on production in this period could not operate as their workers decided to stay at home for their safety despite the bonus offered to them, and this led to scarcity and hence Inflation. 

The economic paralyses are spreading even faster than the pandemic. The effects of these and many other economic paralyses caused by the novel coronavirus will leave a scar and reverberate around economies even in the aftermath of the pandemic. 

The gap is getting wider, it requires refill by the day. The financial contributions made so far in Nigeria by public and private individuals and organizations to fight the coronavirus, which amounted to over N30 billion, is an opportunity to start somewhere, at least, to contain the disease, fund development of the testing kits and maybe fund researches for the development of its cure. This is a period where external intervention may be limited because every country is concerned about their health and economic uncertainties.

How to manage the economic crisis caused by the coronavirus is by far different by how we managed the world economic recession back in 2008. The 2008 global recession was a normal economic cycle that happens at least once in a generation and it was seen coming. It was more of the effect of human errors and decisions, and it was caused by variables within the economy. During the 2008 recession, the economy was not shut down, it was active. So, the aftermath bailout and other injections were smooth, and the time lag was not that long.

In contrast, the recession caused by the coronavirus is external to the economy, unexpected, very fast and more severe. It also put the economies on hold, and at the same time spending a lot to keep it on hold. The money that could be used to revive the economy has to be spent to fund the management of the pandemic and for social protections during the economic hold on. The loss of jobs in the current crisis is 10 times more than the 2008 economic crisis. Similarly, in the 2008 crisis, the oil price did not plummet to as far low as below $20 per barrel as it is now, the lowest it reached then was $32 per barrel, so, there were some reasonable revenues to fund that recovery. The current crisis came with two punches, a sharp increase in demand for government spending and a deep decline in government revenue. So, when we eventually come out of this pandemic, are we going to have the energy to go for another war, the economic war?

The effects of these shutdowns and lockdowns will echo after the pandemic and might cause some social and economic unrest, which require redress too. So, the government needs to spend more money this time around to recover the economy as an economic stimulus. Other countries would be focused on reviving their economy too, every country will be on their own. According to the United Nations, developing countries would need a $2.5 trillion COVID-19 rescue package to revive their economies. For Nigeria, at least a $100 billion rescue is required. 

Our best bet in Nigeria is to do our best to stop the spread because the more it spreads, the longer it lasts, and the more we expose ourselves to graver dangers ahead. So, it is cheaper for us to do everything possible to end the pandemic in just a month, let us target the end of April. However, with the increasing rate of new cases, it is not encouraging. 

Everyone has to take this pandemic as a personal economic threat because it is a trap, we all fall in. Think about Taxi and bus drivers, restaurants, hotels, barbers, airlines, social and sporting centers, and other informal and semi-formal businesses in this period, it is a catastrophe. Our individual and collective economies are severely affected by the day, and if it continues there will be chaos, a bigger catastrophe. Closing down the economy longer might lead to even bigger problems. The Swedish relaxed approach can be considered in Nigeria as soon as possible.

I would like to commend the efforts of health authorities for their efforts so far, and I want to implore them to make judicious use of the resources contributed. In this case, it must not be the Nigerian way, because it is a matter of life and death. The President needs to be more proactive and work closely with the task force to supervise the operation and receive minute by minute updates. The visibility is not necessary, but in the period of crisis and uncertainty, people need to be seeing and hearing from their leaders for more partnerships, hopes, and psychological stability. We are in a war, a health and economic war, our commanders-in-chief need to be more proactive in the period of war. 

 

Dr. Ahmed Adamu

Petroleum Economist, Nile University, Abuja.

ahmadadamu1@gmail.com